New data from a top-rated polling agency shows Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes leading Gov. Pat Quinn by one percentage point.
The governor's race looked like a lock for Quinn before Thanksgiving. Hynes had made little headway in damaging the governor's favorability among voters, and he was behind in fund raising.
But the new poll from Public Policy Polling shows a Hynes television advertisement featuring the late Chicago Mayor Harold Washington may be working.
The poll, conducted Friday through yesterday, shows Hynes's lead relying on his 45-38 advantage over Quinn among black voters. Further, Quinn's approval rating is just 38 percent, below the 50 percent incumbents typically desire in an election year.
The Republican race is also close, according to the poll.
It shows state Sen. Kirk Dillard leading the pack of GOP candidates with 19 percent of voters. But trailing candidates are close behind him.
Former Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna, who has bombarded the airwaves with ads attacking Democrats and fellow Republicans, has 17 percent support in the polls. State Sen. Bill Brady has 16 percent support.
In further evidence of his decline, former Attorney General Jim Ryan holds just 13 percent of the Republican vote in the poll, just two percentage points ahead of political newcomer Adam Andrzejewski.
"With the uncertainty in the governor’s race, there are still 10 different potential match-ups that could plausibly come out of next week’s primary,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling.
The U.S. Senate race, however, is more clear in the poll, especially for Republicans. GOP Congressman Mark Kirk leads his field 42-9 over trailing candidate Patrick Hughes.
For Democrats, the results favor Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias but also show a broad swath of undecided voters.
Giannoulias leads with 32 percent support in the poll, while former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman holds 20 percent and Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson has 18 percent.
The poll shows that 27 percent of voters are undecided in that primary.
PPP surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary voters and 573 likely Republican primary voters during the previous four days, according to a statement from the agency.
The margin of error for the Democratic survey is 4.9 percent, and for the Republicans it’s 4.1 percent. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
In 2008, The Wall Street Journal ranked PPP second among nine pollsters in accuracy predicting results in swing states. The top firm, off by less than one percentage point, was SurveyUSA.
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