We're wrapping up the exit poll, with a total of a dozen Cook County precincts surveyed and 136 Dem voters responding.
That puts our margin of error at between 8 and 9 percent, depending on how many voters answered each question.
Here's how the numbers break down:
Preckwinkle leading the county board president race with 69% to O'Brien's 17% and incumbent Todd Stroger stuck in single digits. Preckwinkle's lead is much bigger than the margin of error, suggesting that she'll be the Dem nominee for board president.
Quinn's leading Hynes 61% to 39%. Again, the lead is bigger than the margin of error, so we can be reasonably sure he'll take Cook County. Unless downstate broke heavily for Hynes, the gov lives to fight another day.
Hoffman leads Giannoulias 51%-35%. Strong showing for the underdog, but our poll's not robust enough to say who takes Cook County. One thing we can say: This is a much, much closer election than Alexi expected.
We'll be cranking out projections from our statewide precinct survey as soon as we can nail down results, that that'll give a clear picture of who won IL.
Tomorrow, we'll delve deep into the Cook data and answer questions about whether the ads made a difference, whether the voters really liked the candidates they chose, and such.
7:30 p.m.: Hoffman leads in Cook
It's official: Hoffman is now beating Giannoulias in Cook County. Is an upset in the works?
The latest tally is 57% to 36%, with a 9% margin of error. We've been watching Hoffman's numbers mount all day, and now the dark horse's lead is bigger than the margin of error.
Good government groups across the state are likely thrilled. Single women? Not so much.
Other updates:
Quinn: 61% / Hynes: 39%
Preckwinkle: 65% / O'Brien: 20%
6:11 p.m.: Quinn inching toward victory in Cook
We've now got nine polling places and 93 surveys in hand, which gives our results a margin of error of +/- 10%, and a confidence interval of 95%.
Preckwinkle leads O'Brien 68% to 18%, with the other two candidates still in single digits. Her margin is well outside the error range for the exit poll at this point. Right now this is looking like a sizable win for her, though things could change as more data come in.
The governor's race is much closer, with Quinn polling at 62% compared to Hynes' 38%. Again, the margin of error isn't big enough to close that spread, meaning Quinn's lead is likely the real deal at this point.
Of course, it's possible he could pull a Vallas, winning Cook County but losing the state.
Hoffman tops Giannoulias in the Senate race, 55% to 39%. His lead is within the margin of error, meaning it's possible the race could go either way.
3:56 p.m: Preckwinkle looking strong
We've now got 52 voter surveys from six polling places, and a clear trend in favor of Toni Preckwinkle has emerged.
67% of our respondents voted for her, compared to 21% for Terrence O'Brien and single digits for the other two contenders.
Our sample still looks heavy on rich white men, and of course we've got a lot of polling and analyzing left to do. But Preckwinkle's lead looks impressive.
I'll be updating with results of another polling place, as well as confidence intervals on these numbers, in a few minutes.
2:03 p.m.: Turnout & early voting
A wise reader reminds me that the rise of early voting may account for some of the low turnout that we're seeing today.
If you're just tuning in, you may want to check here for some background on the Current's exit poll and all of its potential downfalls.
1:32 p.m.: A surge for Hoffman?
We've just received another handful of survey responses from South Side precincts, as well as one in Wheeling.
This batch is heavily weighted for David Hoffman, who's on top for the moment.
The sample continues to skew male, wealthy and white, so things could change significantly.
Preckwinkle and Quinn continue to lead.
So far we've got about 30 responses. We'll be taking a pause here as our field crew relocates to new spots and starts talking to voters.
We'd originally planned to survey 25 precincts, but logistics are interfering, and we'll probably wind up with about half that. We'd targeted 600 voters, but low turnout will probably leave us with about half of that count.
Overall I think we'll end up with an exit poll that is not as comprehensive as we'd hoped, and one with a wider margin of error -- but one that still gives a strong indication of who's on top and which issues put them there.
1:11 p.m. -- Front-runners running well?
We've got just a handful of responses in, mostly from wealthier, suburban precincts.
So far the survey count is low and confidence interval and margin of error aren't even worth talking about.
But the voters we've heard from so far seem to favor candidates who led most polls going into the election -- Quinn, Giannoulias and Preckwinkle.
Not surprisingly, economic concerns rank high.
12:52: Low turnout so far
Reports are in from the first handful of precincts in the Current's exit poll. I'll post numbers on the candidates shortly.
Meanwhile, it's clear that turnout so far at these four polling places is well below what we expected.
We based our turnout projections for today on vote counts from the 2006 Democratic primary, and in some cases we're seeing numbers that are 50-60% of what we expected.
I just finished a polling shift at a condo tower and Kedzie and Pratt, and logged surveys from one voter per hour. It was like watching paint dry.
It's too early to tell if this trend will hold, but it could indicate that voters who previously cast ballots in the Dem primary are drifting away from the party -- either to sit this one out or vote Republican. We're not exit polling GOP voters, so we won't have hard data this afternoon.
Alternatively, the short primary season and a somewhat lackluster field of candidates may have dampened down voter enthusiasm. Throw a bit of slush on the roads and ... voila! Ghost-town primary.
If turnout is as low as I suspect, it'll have some implications for our exit poll results, too. We originally hoped to tally results from about 500 Dem voters, but we'll likely have far fewer than that, which will mean a wider margin of error for some calculations.
I'll be updating this post throughout the afternoon with those results.
Meanwhile, what do you think? Low turnout = Disaffected Democrats?
Windy Citizen 