I'm starting to crank out detailed analysis of the results from yesterday's exit poll, and one of the most interesting tidbits is this: 68% percent of the black voters in our survey supported Quinn.
Meanwhile, 55% of white voters cast ballots for the incumbent gov.
With the race within a few thousand votes and just a handful of precincts left to be counted in Chicago and Cook County, stuff like this makes a difference.
If the uncounted precincts are in minority neighborhoods, expect Quinn to win. Vice versa and Hynes may well snag the nomination.
I'll post the crosstab in a second, as soon as I figure out how to get our stats software (R) to make some nice html tables.
update: here's the table
| Asian | Black | Hispanic | Other | White | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.057 |
| Daniel W. Hynes | 0.000 | 0.318 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.396 |
| Pat Quinn | 0.500 | 0.682 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.547 |
Windy Citizen 