Well, folks, our projections show Hynes and Quinn separated by less than a tenth of a percentage point, and the more precision we bring to the model ... the narrower the contest becomes.
With some elections, it's best to let the folks who are actually counting the ballots name the winner. And this is definitely one of them.
For the record, here's our projection:
Hynes, 49.31% / Quinn, 49.35%
Confidence interval is 95%, margin of error is +/- 1.95%.
With 96% of the precincts counted, the projection and the actual results are pretty much locked together. Looks like it'll be a while before we know who the Dem nominee for governor is.
10:56 p.m.: Quinn trailing by 1% in statewide forecast
We're still sharpening and double-checking the numbers on our predictive model, but for the time being, challenger Dan Hynes edges out incumbent Pat Quinn in the Democratc gubernatorial race.
The model includes precinct results from 25 randomly selected polling locations across the state. Quinn looked strong throughout the day in the Current's Cook County exit poll. But Hynes, the state comptroller, knocked the governor silly in in some downstate precincts.
If I were a braver man, I'd predict a Hynes win. But for the moment, we'll just say he's riding high, albeit on a razor-thin margin.