Even by Illinois standards, Scott Lee Cohen was an unlikely candidate.
Before he campaigned to become the state’s lieutenant governor, Cohen had weathered a messy divorce and was arrested in connection with domestic-abuse allegations.
But after a few sit-downs with his political consultant, Cohen started holding job fairs around the state and touting them in his campaign advertisements.
The strategy targeted voters in a state wrestling with high unemployment — and it worked.
Cohen became the Democratic nominee for the state’s No. 2 position, almost a year after he had disclosed notable problems in his personal life.
“We honed in on the issues that resonated the most with voters,” says Phil Molfese, his campaign consultant. “People remembered Scott as a candidate who was holding job fairs.”
Shrouded in scandal, Cohen’s coronation was short lived.
After he won the election, party leaders forced him to drop his nomination.
But his unlikely rise is a prime example of how some political consultants can mold underdogs into trophy horses. With expert guidance, candidates with slim odds can end up with big wins.
In Cohen’s case, it was a combination of targeted messaging and smart ad buys that helped him topple better-known opponents.
Molfese, president of Chicago’s Grainger Terry Inc., says Cohen’s campaign team settled on the job-fair concept after polls showed that voters were most interested in jobs and the economy.
“All of the data pointed to the need for a candidate to do more than just talk about it,” Molfese says. “They needed him to take some action.”
Yet a finely tuned strategy is not enough for candidates who face an uphill fight.
Eric Adelstein, partner at Chicago-based political consulting firm Adelstein | Liston, says underdog campaigners need the discipline to move on their strategies without becoming paralyzed by insecurity.
“That’s a big key to winning these things,” Adelstein says. “The team has to shut out that noise from the outside that says, ‘Oh, you can’t,” or, ‘This is impossible,’ or, ‘Why are you wasting your time?’ and focus on the plan and execute it.”
That ability to ignore naysayers was critical when Adelstein helped pull off one of the biggest political upsets in Chicago history. In 1990, he guided Richard Phelan to the head of the Cook County Board of Commissioners.
Phelan, then an attorney for a congressional committee, entered the race as a little-known challenger to Cook’s longest-serving county board president, George Dunne.
“Everyone said we were absolutely crazy,” Adelstein says.
But Dunne dropped out, turning the campaign into an easier competition.
Phelan, who got a head start picking up mentions in local media, ended up winning the seat.
“Sticking to the plan and taking some risks really did help in that race,” Adelstein says.
The strategy worked during this year’s primary season as well.
Adelstein’s firm advised Democrat Dan Seals during his successful run against state Rep. Julie Hamos for the 10th District congressional seat. He started ahead in the polls.
But Hamos nailed down support from influential groups such as Emily’s List, the powerful political action group that advocates for women in politics, and quickly mounted a fundraising lead.
“She was a formidable, formidable foe,” Adelstein says. “He just stuck to his plan and didn’t get distracted by what she was doing and the buzz about her.”
He says Seals’ “laser-like focus” helped him overcome a candidate with more more money and endorsements — two things among many that long-shot candidates often lack.
Light coffers and thin support often force underdogs to be much more careful about their moves. For example, the stakes for running the right television advertisement are higher for a candidate who may only be able to air one or two spots.
“You’re at a resource disadvantage,” says John Kupper, senior partner at AKPD Message and Media. “You have fewer opportunities to communicate with voters. You have to make sure the spots you do produce and run are strong and effective.”
AKPD worked on David Hoffman’s U.S. Senate campaign, and consulted with state comptroller candidate Raja Krishnamoorthi.
He faced a difficult task because of his unfamiliar name and a tight budget.
“We knew we were only going to be able to run one commercial,” Kupper says. “We produced that spot well in advance, and we persuaded the candidate to put some money into testing the spot with real voters.”
AKPD recommended testing the spot on the Internet by providing it to a significant number of Democratic primary voters, and asking them to respond to it.
That approach was cheaper than running a focus group, and it allowed the campaign to make sure the spot was a winner before spending money on airtime, Kupper says.
Hoffman faced a battle against the political establishment’s preconceptions, he says.
“The conventional wisdom was that Alexi (Giannoulias) had this thing locked up,” Kupper says. “He had institutional support and lots of money socked away. It was much like the way people talked about Hillary Clinton when she was running for president.”
Neither Krishnamoorthi nor Hoffman won their races.
But both came closer than observers intially predicted they would, and their campaigns may have positioned them for other offices.
Krishnamoorthi is now a top candidate to replace Cohen as the Democratic lieutenant-governor nominee, and Hoffman’s supporters are pushing him to run for Chicago mayor.
~ Chicago Current staff writer Geoff Dougherty contributed to this report.