The Current's May print edition is now available at bars, restaurants and other locations around Chicago. Here's a story from the paper. More to come on Monday.
Mark Kirk entered the U.S. Senate race as a golden child of Illinois’ Republican Party, winning handily in his GOP primary for Barack Obama’s old seat.
It was the latest victory in his charmed political career. Since 2001, he’s held the 10th Congressional District seat, maintaining favor with moderates among his wealthy, socially liberal North Shore constituency.
But now he’s playing on a new field: the entire state of Illinois. Because of that, he faces a difficult task. He must keep his moderate base happy as he vies for conservative votes.
“Kirk’s problem is the balancing act,” says Kent Redfield, professor of political science at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “How do I turn on the base, and still have that moderate, independent image out there? The danger here is that you get a mixed message.”
It’s a danger that’s clear to Kirk’s opponent, Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. The Democrat’s campaign has been using Kirk’s words against him, contrasting his public stand as a moderate with his more partisan comments behind the scenes.
In March, in his first television spot, Kirk called himself “independent minded.” Among other things, he emphasized his opposition to the Republican-supported “Bridge to Nowhere,” and his support of stem-cell research.
Then, a recording of him during a closed-door fundraiser revealed that he told Republicans he plans to repeal the national health care bill, remarking that they were on their way to making “this guy” Obama a “one-termer.”
“I think that what he’s succeeded in doing is proving to be more interested in what’s going to benefit him most politically than in taking principled stands on issues,” says Kathleen Strand, campaign spokeswoman for Giannoulias. “This is what every typical politician who has spent too much time in Washington does, and people are tired of it.”
Kirk’s spokesman, Eric Elk, did not respond to several requests for an interview with the candidate.
But in a brief statement e-mailed to the Current, Elk wrote that Kirk “is working to build a coalition of Republicans, independents and like-minded Democrats to create jobs, clean up corruption and restore integrity to the State of Illinois.”
The question for Kirk is whether he can please all of those crowds.
Joe Calomino, a Republican strategist with Springfield’s Hodas & Associates, says that in some ways, Kirk’s biggest challenge has been winning over members of his own party.
“There’s no doubt that Mark has fences to mend in that universe,” Calomino says. “He needs to continue to build those relationships with the more conservative part of the Illinois electorate.”
Last year, Kirk angered conservatives by voting for cap and trade legislation, which would limit emissions by some manufacturers and create a new market for pollution permits.
Critics said the bill, backed by Obama, would eliminate jobs in the state, and particularly Illinois’ coal sector.
Facing political blowback, Kirk explained that he voted for the cap and trade legislation because it was in the “narrow interest” of his district, and that he would vote against it as a U.S. senator.
It was a move that in many ways defines Kirk’s political strategy in the Senate race — to cater not just to his party, but also to the supporters he needs to win election.
Critics call it flip-flopping. But Calomino says Kirk’s approach is honest and consistent with his past.
“Mark is doing what he’s always done,” Calomino says. “He’s marketing himself as a candidate who is independent because he is. Mark is positioned well for this kind of election.”
Indeed, his past success gathering the moderate vote has stoked fears among Democratic operatives that Kirk could win again, and on a bigger scale. Obama’s old seat, now held by Democrat Roland Burris, would be a trophy for the Republican Party.
“What better way to put it in the face of Democrats,” asks Democratic strategist Phil Molfese, “than to win that seat and say, ‘Look how things have changed?’”
Molfese, president of Chicago’s Grainger Terry Inc., says Democrats have become increasingly complacent after Obama’s election.
“I just don’t see the energy,” he says. “There’s a lot of voters feeling they did their part, that we have a Democrat in the White House.”
Further, Molfese says, the hypocrisy that Giannoulias likes to point out rarely makes it into the electoral psyche. Unless Kirk’s comments at closed-door fundraisers make it on the airwaves, he says, they will just remain inside baseball.
“Your average voter is not going to pick up on that,” Molfese says. “Your average voter is going to see the TV commercial with Kirk saying he’s a moderate.”
That and voter apathy, reflected in abysmal turnout during the February primaries, could benefit Kirk, Molfese says.
“It’s gonna be a tough fight,” he says. “We don’t have that centralized figure in Obama to motivate turnout and beat the challengers.”